That said, the incumbent party is close to being a clear underdog in two races. So this cycle is different in that we do not have any single race rated worse than a Toss-up for the incumbent party. We could go back further, but we hope you get the point. In 2012, Angus King (I-ME) was well on his way to winning an open seat in Maine and was widely expected to caucus with Democrats (he still does and is a big favorite for reelection this year), and Republicans were in the driver’s seat to pick up an open seat in Nebraska. Mark Kirk (R-IL) seemed like an almost sure loser, and he did lose in 2014, open Democratic seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia did not appear salvageable for Democrats. That’s a change from the past several cycles at around Labor Day. That’s not to say the incumbent party is leading in every seat they already hold - in at least two states that does not appear to be the case, as we will discuss below - but no seat appears to be a write-off loss. One oddity as we reach the final stretch of the campaign is that while there are many very competitive Senate races, we don’t consider the incumbent party to be a clear underdog in any seat they currently hold at this juncture. The national picture remains favorable to Democrats, but because of the Senate playing field, the Republican majority still will be difficult for Democrats to dislodge even in an optimal environment. With Labor Day in the rearview mirror, the race to Election Day is on. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings change Texas goes from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Republicans remain favored to hold the Senate, but the Democrats do have a path. But there are at least a couple of cases where the incumbent party is likely behind. In what is a somewhat unusual development, the incumbent party is not a clear underdog in any single Senate race with just two months left to go.
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